Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and generalization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is challenging and requires restrictive approximations. Monte Carlo Dropout has been widely used as a relatively cheap way for approximate Inference and to estimate uncertainty with deep neural networks. Traditionally, the dropout mask is sampled independently from a fixed distribution. Recent works show that the dropout mask can be viewed as a latent variable, which can be inferred with variational inference. These methods face two important challenges: (a) the posterior distribution over masks can be highly multi-modal which can be difficult to approximate with standard variational inference and (b) it is not trivial to fully utilize sample-dependent information and correlation among dropout masks to improve posterior estimation. In this work, we propose GFlowOut to address these issues. GFlowOut leverages the recently proposed probabilistic framework of Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to learn the posterior distribution over dropout masks. We empirically demonstrate that GFlowOut results in predictive distributions that generalize better to out-of-distribution data, and provide uncertainty estimates which lead to better performance in downstream tasks.

已经引入了生成流量网络（GFlowNETS）作为在主动学习背景下采样多样化候选的方法，具有培训目标，其使它们与给定奖励功能成比例地进行比例。在本文中，我们显示了许多额外的GFLOWN的理论特性。它们可用于估计联合概率分布和一些变量未指定的相应边际分布，并且特别感兴趣地，可以代表像集合和图形的复合对象的分布。 Gflownets摊销了通常通过计算昂贵的MCMC方法在单个但训练有素的生成通行证中进行的工作。它们还可用于估计分区功能和自由能量，给定子集（子图）的超标（超图）的条件概率，以及给定集合（图）的所有超标仪（超图）的边际分布。我们引入了熵和相互信息估计的变体，从帕累托前沿采样，与奖励最大化策略的连接，以及随机环境的扩展，连续动作和模块化能量功能。

Deploying machine learning models in production may allow adversaries to infer sensitive information about training data. There is a vast literature analyzing different types of inference risks, ranging from membership inference to reconstruction attacks. Inspired by the success of games (i.e., probabilistic experiments) to study security properties in cryptography, some authors describe privacy inference risks in machine learning using a similar game-based style. However, adversary capabilities and goals are often stated in subtly different ways from one presentation to the other, which makes it hard to relate and compose results. In this paper, we present a game-based framework to systematize the body of knowledge on privacy inference risks in machine learning.

The number of international benchmarking competitions is steadily increasing in various fields of machine learning (ML) research and practice. So far, however, little is known about the common practice as well as bottlenecks faced by the community in tackling the research questions posed. To shed light on the status quo of algorithm development in the specific field of biomedical imaging analysis, we designed an international survey that was issued to all participants of challenges conducted in conjunction with the IEEE ISBI 2021 and MICCAI 2021 conferences (80 competitions in total). The survey covered participants' expertise and working environments, their chosen strategies, as well as algorithm characteristics. A median of 72% challenge participants took part in the survey. According to our results, knowledge exchange was the primary incentive (70%) for participation, while the reception of prize money played only a minor role (16%). While a median of 80 working hours was spent on method development, a large portion of participants stated that they did not have enough time for method development (32%). 25% perceived the infrastructure to be a bottleneck. Overall, 94% of all solutions were deep learning-based. Of these, 84% were based on standard architectures. 43% of the respondents reported that the data samples (e.g., images) were too large to be processed at once. This was most commonly addressed by patch-based training (69%), downsampling (37%), and solving 3D analysis tasks as a series of 2D tasks. K-fold cross-validation on the training set was performed by only 37% of the participants and only 50% of the participants performed ensembling based on multiple identical models (61%) or heterogeneous models (39%). 48% of the respondents applied postprocessing steps.

Under climate change, the increasing frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of drought events lead to higher socio-economic costs. However, the relationships between the hydro-meteorological indicators and drought impacts are not identified well yet because of the complexity and data scarcity. In this paper, we proposed a framework based on the extreme gradient model (XGBoost) for Texas to predict multi-category drought impacts and connected a typical drought indicator, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), to the text-based impacts from the Drought Impact Reporter (DIR). The preliminary results of this study showed an outstanding performance of the well-trained models to assess drought impacts on agriculture, fire, society & public health, plants & wildlife, as well as relief, response & restrictions in Texas. It also provided a possibility to appraise drought impacts using hydro-meteorological indicators with the proposed framework in the United States, which could help drought risk management by giving additional information and improving the updating frequency of drought impacts. Our interpretation results using the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) interpretability technique revealed that the rules guiding the predictions of XGBoost comply with domain expertise knowledge around the role that SPI indicators play around drought impacts.

人工智能（AI）是21世纪最有前途的技术之一，对社会和经济产生了明显影响。通过这项工作，我们简要概述了全球趋势，行业应用以及我们在工业和学术界的国际经验和工作中的精选用例。目的是提出全球和地区的积极实践，并就将B＆H定位在全球AI场景中定位的现实目标和机会提供明智的意见。

对复杂建筑环境的结构监测通常在设计，实验室测试和实际建筑参数之间遭受不匹配。此外，现实世界中的结构识别问题遇到了许多挑战。例如，缺乏准确的基线模型，高维度和复杂的多元部分微分方程（PDE）在训练和学习常规数据驱动算法方面遇到了重大困难。本文通过增强使用神经网络来控制结构动力学的PDE来探讨一个称为Neuralsi的新框架，以供结构识别。我们的方法试图从管理方程式估算非线性参数。我们考虑具有两个未知参数的非线性光束的振动，一个参数代表几何和材料变化，另一种代表主要通过阻尼捕获系统中的能量损失。参数估计的数据是从有限的一组测量值中获得的，这有利于在结构健康监测中的应用，其中通常未知现有结构的确切状态，并且只能在现场收集有限的数据样本。也可以使用已识别的结构参数在标准和极端条件下训练有素的模型。我们与纯数据驱动的神经网络和其他经典物理信息的神经网络（PINN）进行了比较。我们的方法将位移分布中的插值和外推误差降低了基线上的两到五个数量级。代码可从https://github.com/human-analysis/naural-scruptural-isendification获得。

估计深神经网络（DNN）的概括误差（GE）是一项重要任务，通常依赖于持有数据的可用性。基于单个训练集更好地预测GE的能力可能会产生总体DNN设计原则，以减少对试用和错误的依赖以及其他绩效评估优势。为了寻找与GE相关的数量，我们使用无限宽度DNN限制到绑定的MI，研究了输入和最终层表示之间的相互信息（MI）。现有的基于输入压缩的GE绑定用于链接MI和GE。据我们所知，这代表了该界限的首次实证研究。为了实证伪造理论界限，我们发现它通常对于表现最佳模型而言通常很紧。此外，它在许多情况下检测到训练标签的随机化，反映了测试时间扰动的鲁棒性，并且只有很少的培训样本就可以很好地工作。考虑到输入压缩是广泛适用的，可以在信心估算MI的情况下，这些结果是有希望的。

我们提出了一种新的算法，用于在几何环境中学习隐藏的马尔可夫模型（HMM）的参数，其中观测值在Riemannian歧管中采用值。特别是，我们提升了一种瞬间算法的二阶方法，该方法将非统一的相关性纳入了更通用的环境，在该环境中，观察结果在非阳性面力的Riemannian对称空间中进行，观察可能性是Riemannian Gaussians。所得算法将其分解为Riemannian高斯混合模型估计算法，然后是一系列凸优化程序。我们通过示例证明，与现有学习者相比，学习者可以显着提高速度和数值准确性。

诸如私人SGD之类的算法启用具有正式隐私保证的培训机器学习模型。但是，这种算法在理论上保证的保护与实践中提供的保护之间存在差异。一系列新兴的工作经验估计了差异私人培训作为隐私预算$ \ varepsilon $用于培训模型的置信区间提供的保护。现有方法从置信区间从置信区间获得了置信区间，以置信为误报和假阴性攻击。不幸的是，使用这种方法获得$ \ epsilon $的狭窄高信心间隔需要不切实际的样本量和训练与样品一样多的型号。我们提出了一种新颖的贝叶斯方法，可大大减少样本量，并适应和验证启发式方法，以绘制每个训练有素的模型多个样本。我们的贝叶斯方法利用了对差异隐私的假设测试解释，从$ \ varepsilon $（不仅仅是置信区间）获得后部的后验，这是从误报和假阴性的成员推理攻击的共同后部。对于相同的样本量和信心，我们以$ \ varepsilon $ 40％的狭窄范围比先前的工作得出置信区间。我们从仅标签DP适应的启发式方法可用于进一步减少最多2个数量级获得足够样品所需的训练模型数量。